01 The latest automobile production and sales trends

■ Macroeconomic policy updates to support the development of the automotive aftermarket and promote carbon peaking in key industries
On September 1, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Transport jointly issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Automotive Industry (2023-2024)." The plan proposes to strive to achieve annual vehicle sales of about 27 million vehicles in 2023, including about 9 million new energy vehicle sales.

On September 21, the Ministry of Commerce will focus on key areas and promote the introduction of a number of policy measures to support the development of the automotive aftermarket to add impetus to the accelerated recovery of consumption.

On September 26, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will coordinate efforts to reach carbon peaks in key industries, accelerate the research and development and promotion of energy-saving and carbon-reducing technologies, implement green manufacturing projects in depth, and recycle waste resources such as used batteries for new energy vehicles.

■ Latest sales: China’s automobile production and sales continued to grow in September
On October 11, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers for short) showed that automobile production and sales continued to grow in September, with both production and sales hitting a record high for the same period in history. In September, automobile production and sales completed 2.85 million units and 2.858 million units respectively, an increase of 10.7% month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 6.6% and 9.5% respectively. From January to September, China's automobile production and sales completed 21.075 million units and 21.069 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% and 8.2% respectively.

Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are booming and reaching new highs. As of September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles had completed 879,000 and 904,000 respectively, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and 27.7% respectively, and the market share exceeded one-third, reaching 31.6.

■ China's auto dealer inventory warning index was 57.8% in September, and the auto market is showing a growth trend
At the end of September, the latest "Vehicle Inventory Alert Index" released by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the inventory warning index of China's auto dealers in September this year was 57.8%. The Passenger Car Association said that with the arrival of the Golden, Nine and Silver Ten peak seasons, car companies have continued to cut prices and promote consumption policies, auto shows have been launched in various places, and new product launches have increased to support the release of potential demand. Coupled with the effect of the past "Mid-Autumn Festival + National Day" double festivals, travel demand has exploded, and the auto market has shown a growth trend.

■ Outlook: The peak season will be more prosperous, and the China Automobile Association remains optimistic about Q4 automobile production and sales.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers pointed out: As the effects of the policy package gradually emerge, my country's economic operation continues to recover, positive factors have accumulated, production and demand continue to improve, companies generally remain optimistic about market expectations, and the manufacturing boom has further expanded compared with August.

With the last three months left, the overall situation in the automobile market has basically been settled. Judging from the data, the overall market is indeed very optimistic. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, and deputy chief engineer mentioned in the subsequent question and answer session: "Except for July this year, the other months have exceeded our expectations, including The decline in the first three months is also above expectations, so we estimate that this year's total automobile production and sales may exceed 28.88 million units in 2017 and reach about 29 million units."

02 Latest auto parts market

■ A wave of orders is coming in the auto parts market
The auto parts market has benefited from the expansion of demand in the U.S. collision insurance market, coupled with the increasingly tight Sino-U.S. trade issues that will bring about transfer orders and other momentum. The Q4 peak season of 2023 has arrived, and the industry is brewing a wave of orders.

According to industry analysis, in addition to the above-mentioned driving forces that have led to the busiest season in history for auto parts manufacturers this quarter, there is also another major factor coming from the US auto OEM market. Due to the impact of the strike at brand car manufacturers, the supply volume and price of new cars have also been taken into consideration. , consumers have switched to buying second-hand cars, which has also promoted the expansion of market demand for auto parts AM (after-sales maintenance) and OES (after-sales original parts supply), and simultaneously boosted the order-taking momentum of auto parts manufacturers.

■ The peak season for automotive parts has arrived, and manufacturers in mainland China have relocated their production bases, with Taiwanese manufacturers benefiting significantly.
Industry insiders analyze that frequent snowstorms in North America in Q4 every year and Q1 the following year lead to a surge in demand for collision parts. This has always been the peak season for auto parts manufacturers. However, the spread of the Sino-US "trade war" has simultaneously impacted the domestic auto parts manufacturers in North America. Sales situation.

Even if domestic parts factories begin to shift their production bases and set up factories in Southeast Asia or North America, production costs will also increase. As the cost advantage of the red supply chain is no longer there, manufacturers in Taiwan will benefit more from transfer orders. In addition, the insurance company State Farm uses a large number of AM parts for insurance claims and replacements, further adding new sources of performance.

■ The AM market has been boosted by strikes at U.S. automakers, and Taiwanese automakers have stepped up their efforts to purchase key components.
Recently, auto parts manufacturers in Taiwan, China have clearly felt the increase in orders, and their performance has soared. Judging from the latest September revenue, Taiwanese leader Dongyang's September performance reached a new high for the same period, and Q3 revenue was the best in the third quarter in history. Liqing’s September revenue hit a new high. Industry insiders believe that the U.S. market's investment in Taiwan's parts factories is not just for the automotive AM market. The investment in OEM performance has also continued to increase, and it is more important to Taiwanese factories than before.

Yu Kuang, a Taiwanese manufacturer of key components for automobile clutches, believes that due to the impact of strikes at U.S. automakers, consumers are turning to the second-hand car market, which will have a positive effect on the AM market. Cangyou's main customers in the AM and OES markets plan to continue to increase their efforts to purchase key components such as automatic transmissions and heavy-duty truck clutches on Christmas Eve.

03 Progress in domestic substitution level

It is reported that at present, core automotive parts products are almost monopolized by foreign joint ventures or wholly-owned enterprises, and the revenue scale and profit level of foreign parts giants far exceed those of domestic companies. This monopoly situation is a major challenge to the development of my country's industry. In order to enhance the competitiveness of my country's auto parts industry, the government and enterprises have increased investment in technology research and development and innovation.

■ There is great room for development of domestic substitution in the fields of automotive electronics and key engine parts
Recently, "Automotive News" released the 2023 Top 100 Global Auto Parts Suppliers list, which ranks suppliers based on their sales in the automotive industry supporting market in the previous year. In the latest list, CATL from China has squeezed into the top five, and the total number of Chinese companies on the list has reached 13.

Overall, the top 100 companies have the largest number of Japanese companies on the list, reaching 22, followed by the United States and Germany respectively, followed by China with 13 companies on the list.

my country's domestic substitution can be roughly divided into three categories: raw material products, electromechanical products and system integrated components. Among them, in the fields of automotive electronics and key engine parts, foreign-funded manufacturers still dominate, and there is considerable room for substitution in the domestic key parts industry.

■ The output value of BYD’s latest key parts project is expected to reach 17 billion yuan
At a press conference on September 28, Dongguan BYD’s new energy vehicle key parts project was announced to be completed. It is reported that the investment scale of the project has reached 6.5 billion yuan and covers an area of approximately 1,045 acres. The project will focus on the R&D, design, manufacturing, sales and service of new energy vehicle motors, electronic controls, power supplies, engines, transmissions and axles; it will be dedicated to the R&D and manufacturing of automotive powertrains and the formulation of overall new energy solutions. It is expected to be The output value will reach about 17 billion yuan.

■ China’s auto parts scale is expected to exceed 4.8 trillion yuan in 2028
Benefiting from the development of the domestic and foreign vehicle industries and the expansion of the consumer market, the domestic auto parts industry has shown a good development trend. In the next few years, the rapid growth period of the auto parts industry will end and it will tend to develop more steadily.

With technological innovation, the domestic parts and components supporting system will gradually integrate with the world, and China's auto parts industry will still maintain a good development trend. Looking forward, it is predicted that by 2028, the main business revenue of my country's auto parts industry will exceed 4.8 trillion yuan.